What did Donald Trump do today?

He decided that racism and antisemitism was the key to winning Kansas.

Trump attended a rally tonight that was, at least in theory, in support of Kansas's incumbent Republican Senator, Roger Marshall. He used the occasion to drop an antisemitic slur before launching into a racist tirade about the intelligence of people of African descent.

Marshall, who was a physician before entering politics, has been hurt by revelations that he sued hundreds of impoverished patients for as little as $50, and that some of them went to jail as a result of his actions. Trump defended Marshall by saying the law required him to sue—which is a lie—and then complained that Marshall was unfairly being characterized as "some kind of a Shylock type guy."

The reference to the Jewish moneylender in Shakespeare's 1596 play The Merchant of Venice is an old-fashioned slur against Jews for their supposed greediness. It's rarely used in modern American English, even by people who are antisemites, but Trump seems determined to bring it back into everyday use: he also dropped it last year to describe "bankers" who supposedly opposed his budget bill. (He claimed at the time he didn't know about its antisemitic meaning.)

Trump also ranted about a favorite target for his nineteenth-century-style racism: Americans of Somali descent, who he described as having subnormal intelligence and criminal tendencies. 

Trump: "You go up to Minnesota -- number one place in the entire country for the sale of Mercedes-Benz. And Somalians are buying them. They come here with low IQs and no money and they get rich. Do we feel stupid? Our fraud division is getting them all."

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) October 19, 2026 at 7:27 PM

Under normal circumstances, Kansas's Senate seat would never be at risk for Republicans. The seat that Marshall is trying to retain hasn't been held by a Democrat since 1919. Marshall beat his Democratic opponent by 12 points in 2020, and Trump carried the state by 16 points in 2024.

But many Republicans, and an overwhelming number of independent voters, have quickly soured on Trump's second term. His national approval rating has fallen to 31% in the most recent national poll,  with more than twice as many voters disapproving of his performance in office. 

Trump has made himself the center of the campaign—often directly against the wishes of Republican candidates, who would appeal more to voters if they could get some distance from his spectacularly unpopular agenda. But Trump is also quick to lash out at Republicans who show any sign of breaking away from his agenda, and has even insulted Republican candidates from the same stage he's supposedly campaigning for them.

Trump, whose first appearance in public life was as the losing defendant in a lawsuit where he was caught discriminating against Black renters, is the son of Fred Trump Sr., who was arrested at a Ku Klux Klan rally in 1927—a time when the "Shylock" slur was in more common usage. The KKK is a white supremacist movement that opposes immigrants, Jews, and non-whites.

Why does this matter?

• The United States needs a president whose brain isn't rotted by century-old bigotry.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He doubled down on forcing taxpayers to foot the bill for his own campaign ads.

On Thursday, the federal government paid for a "public service announcement" featuring images of Trump over music that chanted "love me, love me, I'll make them love me" and lavish praise from one of his political benefactors. It is a violation of several federal laws, including the Hatch Act, to use public money for partisan propaganda.

Today, Trump took things a step further, this time using federal funds to re-run one of his actual 2024 campaign ads. Asked for comment, the White House responded by claiming that the ad was "reminding Americans to love their country and understand what makes it worth defending, at home, at our borders, and abroad."

Democrats were incensed, and many Republicans joined in the criticism. It's not the first time the Trump administration has done this: taxpayers also footed the bill for $220 million worth of ads for former Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. (Trump fired Noem shortly afterwards—not because of the ads themselves, but reportedly because of his concerns that she was upstaging him.)

By government standards, the amounts Trump has used to run vanity ads for himself isn't much yet: roughly $1,000,000 so far. But there's no reason to think Trump will stop there. In recent months, he's become increasingly manic over his supposed importance to the 2026 midterm elections, even as Republican candidates are scrubbing his face from their websites and sending him to "campaign" in ultra-safe districts where the Republican incumbents won by more than 50 points in the last cycle.

Why does this matter?

• State-funded propaganda is what dictatorial regimes do to prop up the leader. 

• It's bad if the governing philosophy of the President of the United States is "what can I get away with and who's going to stop me?"

What did Donald Trump do today?

He freaked out about the consequences of his unpopularity.

In an emotional rant this morning posted to his boutique social media website, Trump angrily denounced the media for reporting on how Byron Donalds, Florida's Republican nominee for governor, has scrubbed his website of references to Trump. 

As the Daily Beast and other publications have noted, this simply isn't true—about Donalds, or other Republicans running away from Trump. 
  

Trump also insisted that he was "more popular in Florida today, even more than I was in the last Record Breaking Election!"

Again, whatever Trump may believe, the reality is exactly the opposite. Trump won Florida by 13 points in 2024, but his net approval rating in recent polls is minus 10, minus 16, or minus 21 points. The most recent AP-NORC poll shows Trump losing popularity in Florida faster than any other state, which is saying something, considering that he only has an approval rating above 50% in two states (Oklahoma and West Virginia).

The problem that Byron Donalds is facing—and is trying to solve by distancing himself from Trump—isn't that Floridians don't like him, or that they won't vote for Republicans. Florida hasn't elected a Democratic governor since 1994. But Trump's overtly racist approach to immigration enforcement, his coddling of abusive dictators in Central and South America, and his real or threatened actions against the people of Venezuela and Cuba are deeply unpopular with the large Latino voting base in the state. That's why Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Republican representing a normally safe Republican seat in suburban Miami, released an ad directly criticizing Trump earlier this month.
 

After working through his feelings about Donalds—which included a threat about his political future if the nominee "dropped" Trump—he attended the first half of the Texas vs. Tennessee college football game. As expected, he was loudly booed by the Tennessee Volunteers' home crowd.

Why does this matter?

• Past about age six, declaring yourself popular doesn't make it so. 

• A smarter president would understand he's better off letting members of his party create some distance. 

• A better president wouldn't be this historically unpopular with voters in the first place.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He accidentally nuked TV coverage of his upcoming football game appearance.

Earlier this week, a court ordered the Trump administration to reinstate the press passes of Politico, MS NOW, and CNN. Trump had banned them from the White House explicitly because he didn't like how the "free press"—his words—was reporting on him. That is illegal viewpoint discrimination on its face and a violation of the First Amendment, which prohibits the government from trying to restrict free speech or punish those who criticize it.

In the meantime, the five networks that run the White House TV pool refused to record Trump as they normally would, leading to Trump being effectively silenced for a few days. That may have been as effective a defense as any court order: Trump relies on what he calls the "lying press" (an echo of the Nazi slogan lügenpresse) to get him in front of a national audience. Trump's immediate response to the show of press solidarity, "Trump TV," turned out to be a YouTube channel hosting video already available on the White House website.

Today, Trump announced he was banning CNN again—this time, from accompanying him on Air Force One to watch the Tennessee-Texas football game tomorrow. The TV pool hasn't named a replacement for CNN, so Trump will once again be off the air.

That may actually work to his advantage. Trump is so toxic to voters right now, even in red states like Tennessee, that ticket prices for the game plummeted by more than $100 after he announced he would attend. The game itself will be telecast, but sports broadcasts usually cut away or mute audio when Trump is being booed, as he inevitably is in front of crowds at sporting events he can't personally evict from the premises or order around. Political reporting crews are typically the ones who provide actual coverage of Trump at such events: how loudly he's booed, how early he leaves, whether he falls asleep, how many hours' worth of delay his appearance creates for real fans, and so forth.

Why does this matter?

• Coming out against even the concept of a free press is about as un-American as you can get. 

• There are much bigger problems Donald Trump should be worrying about right now than whether reporters notice what he's doing and tell people about it.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He used taxpayer money to run a campaign ad, then said he'd "campaign" in two of the safest Republican seats left. 

Americans watching TV tonight may have seen a campaign ad for Trump and his version of the Republican policy agenda. They also paid for it: it contained a tagline stating that it was "paid for by the US government." White House officials called the ad a "public service announcement." 

Federal agencies are permitted to buy airtime for public service announcements. President Biden's administration used them to provide information about COVID vaccines, and the George W. Bush administration aired anti-drug ads. But it is explicitly illegal to use taxpayer money to run political ads.

The only people who speak during the ad are Trump, and one of his megadonors, who praises Trump personally as "tough" and "resilient." Most of the visuals are split-second images of Trump. No policy goal is mentioned, other than defeating "communism." (Trump, who is hosting a world leader who actually calls himself a communist at a luxurious state dinner tonight, uses the word to mean Americans who oppose him politically.)

It's unlikely that the ad, which ran only on the Trump-friendly Fox News and the fringe-right Newsmax, will actually persuade anyone to change their vote—much less "make them love me," which are the lyrics that air over pictures of Trump's face. But Trump is increasingly desperate as polls point to another anti-Trump wave election in the midterms, possibly even bigger than voters' rejection of his first-term agenda in 2018. Republican candidates are scrubbing his name from their campaign literature, and even denouncing him by name on camera.

Trump, meanwhile, has committed to the strategy of making the election all about him, literally begging his core voters to pretend he's on the ballot. At his so-called "midterm convention" earlier this month, which most Republican candidates in close races avoided, he led the sparse crowd in a pledge to vote, and even to "cheat like hell" if necessary. 

That combination of factors—his deep personal unpopularity combined with his determination to be the center of attention—may explain his announcement today of upcoming campaign stops in Oklahoma and Alabama. Both stops are in deep red districts in deep red states, and Oklahoma is one of only two states where his approval rating is above 50%. The planned rally in Mobile would have Trump shoring up support for a district that the Republican incumbent won by 57% in 2024. The Oklahoma rally would take place in a district where the Republican incumbent won by 53%.

No elected Republican who is on the ballot in 2026 from either state has commented yet, or committed to appearing with Trump. 

Why does this matter?

• As illegal as stealing taxpayer money for propaganda is, doing it like this is even more pathetic.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He decided that his much-mocked "triumphal arch" was a military installation—just like his much-mocked ballroom.

Trump's plans to build a "triumphal arch" have been out of the public eye since he unveiled a scale model at his ill-fated "Great American State Fair" this summer. That hastily slapped-together structure, made of decaying plywood and featuring vinyl stickers meant to look like architectural features, probably didn't do much to spark public interest in yet another Trump taxpayer-funded building project. It was already a dud: barely one in five Americans approved of the plan to build it.

Today, Trump tried a new strategy, or rather re-used an old one: in a post on his microblogging site, he insisted that the "Arc d'Trump" was really a desperately needed military installation.

At the strong request of the United States Military, and for National Security purposes, I have agreed to convert the magnificent Triumphal Arch, planned since the Civil War Era many years ago, at the Receptive Circle adjoining the Arlington Memorial Bridge, into a top grade Military Complex/Triumphal Arch, to house, store, and have the rapid ability to use large numbers of drones, plus Snipers, on both the roof and plaza areas, and additionally have and hold large quantities of sniper ammunition in storage. There will be no facility like this anywhere in the World. Out of the 59 top cities and Capitals, Washington, D.C., IS THE ONLY ONE IN THE WORLD THAT DOES NOT HAVE A TRIUMPHAL ARCH, but it will now and, by far, the greatest of them all! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

To be clear, Trump is absolutely lying about the military having anything to do with the "strong request" to put snipers and drones anywhere in the DC area, much less on top of an unbuilt monument.

For example, a typical sniper rifle's effective range is about 800 meters. That means that the snipers Trump wants to have permanently keeping watch over his arch would be able to target people coming out of the Metro station that serves Arlington National Cemetery, and not much else. (Even if there were some reason to keep guns trained on a cemetery, snipers don't generally want their positions advertised in advance.)

The real reason Trump is claiming that the arch would serve a double purpose as a military outpost is that the Supreme Court gave him permission to proceed with what he calls the "military top secret" part of his ballroom project—which, in practice, may let him build the whole thing. Trump had been campaigning for the ballroom since his first term, absurdly insisting that presidents going back to Lincoln had been pining for a ballroom, but were too weak to actually build one. But it was only after he'd illegally destroyed the East Wing of the White House and was facing real legal threats to constructing a new building on its ruins that he suddenly insisted it was really a military installation.

As for Trump's claim that (exactly) 58 other world capitals have a triumphal arch, he appears to be making it up. Some do, of course. Paris has the Arc de Triomphe, which was commissioned by the self-crowned emperor Napoleon as a monument to his own glory—but was never built during his lifetime because of the economic and military ruin he led France to. It was only completed thirty years later, on a different plan, with all planned references to Napoleon scrubbed away.

There's another arch in a world capital that may be more to Trump's liking, one that was built without any legislative or judicial interference, or even public opposition: the Arch of Triumph in Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea.

 

The Arch of Triumph is festooned in tributes to Kim Il-sung, the dictator of North Korea at the time it was constructed in 1986. Kim was the grandfather of Kim Jong-un, the current dictator and a very close friend of Trump, at least to hear Trump tell it.

Why does this matter?

• A president who had any real accomplishments wouldn't be so desperate to build big monuments to be remembered by. 

• It almost seems quaint to mention it, but it's not good for a president to be lying about national security, even if nobody believes him in the first place.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He got even more confused about basic economic reality than usual.

Today, the Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise the interest rates that banks charge one another for spot loans by a quarter of a percentage point. In practical terms, that means that interest rates in general will rise by a similar amount. The reason for raising rates is to curb inflation, which has been well above the target rate of 2% for all of Trump's second term, and has been greatly inflamed by Trump's war on Iran and the imposition of taxes on American consumers for imported goods.

In a social media rant immediately after the vote, Trump demanded that rates plummet to 1%, confusing the yields on US Treasury bills with the Fed rate. Trump also repeated his apparently genuine, but incredibly stupid, belief that trade deficits mean the United States is simply giving money away to foreign countries. (This is true in exactly the same sense that you are "simply giving money away" to the grocery store when you buy groceries.) 

To be clear, making it cheaper to borrow money during a period of high inflation would be like fighting a wildfire with gasoline. But what Trump does seem to understand is that he is one of the few people wealthy enough to actually profit from the damage that would result. It doesn't matter to a billionaire like Trump whether his Big Mac costs $5 or $50, or how many times the price of diesel doubles on his watch: the basic necessities that most American households have to carefully budget for are always a rounding error for him.

But plummeting interest rates would save him hundreds of millions of dollars if he could suddenly refinance the mortgages he has all over his real estate holdings, and it would sharply increase the value of the huge quantities of bonds he's bought since returning to office, apparently in the belief he could jawbone interest rates lower against all common sense.

The current Chair of the Federal Reserve's Board of governors is Kevin Warsh, whom Trump appointed in May. It was obvious that Trump believed Warsh would somehow force interest rates lower. After his social media tirade, Trump changed his story, claiming that he'd "allowed" Warsh to vote in unison with the rest of the board. (Trump has no power to force the Fed to do anything, which is independent from the executive branch by design, as Trump found out after trying unsuccessfully to purge its membership on returning to office.) 

A reporter pointed out that Warsh had already said that "raising rates was the right decision and responsible decision." Trump responded: "Well, I don't know what he's referring to, but I will tell you interest rates are too high. We have the greatest economy in history." (The vast majority of Americans, all but a handful of whom are not billionaires, strongly disagree with Trump's assessment the economy.)

Asked today about Trump's likely reaction to his voting in unison with the Board—and, in essence, every economist in the world—Warsh literally laughed out loud and said "I've got nothing for you."

Why does this matter?

• It's bad if a president can't understand basic concepts like "selling goods" or "inflation." 

• It's bad and suspicious if his lack of understanding of those concepts would somehow still make him money. 

• As one person on the internet put it, "The dumbest asshole in the country and the President need to be two different people moving forward."

What did Donald Trump do today?

He announced the list of Republicans who can't get out of going to his "midterm convention." 

One of Trump's ideas for staving off a likely Democratic wave in the midterm election is to hold a party convention this year. Normally, these are done in presidential election years, and serve two functions: they act as a coronation for the party's presidential nominee, and they finalize the party's platform.

This "convention" won't have a platform. In fact, that's how Trump likes it: when he ran for re-election in 2020, he took the unprecedented step of suspending the platform process altogether and, in effect, ruling party policy by fiat. A number of what used to be bedrock Republican principles—for example, opposing the Putin regime—were embarrassing to the way Trump actually governed as president.

The two-day event will have a coronation of Trump, though. He has put himself in prime-time speaking slots on both nights, and he will unveil two ads intended to run nationally that feature him as opposed to local Republican candidates. 

Trump is profoundly unpopular 19 months into his second term. Nevertheless, he seems to genuinely believe that the best chance Republicans will have to hold onto bare majorities in Congress is to make the election all about him. That's straight from Trump's mouth: he recently told a crowd at a political rally that "What I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot." 

Trump's convention is, to put it mildly, extremely unpopular with the Republicans it is theoretically supposed to help. Only one person, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) who running for re-election in a swing House district will appear on the program. Many GOP officeholders are incensed that they are expected to pay $25,000 for the privilege of attending, and have found excuses not to go.  

Today, Trump unveiled the final program for the event, which will take place next Wednesday and Thursday in Houston. Trump's midterm convention will feature 47 speakers, including five women and seven men named Michael.

Why does this matter?

• One way for a president to make themselves an asset to their party would be to govern in a way that Americans didn't hate. 

• There are words like "megalomania" and "narcissism" to describe the unshakeable belief that people worship you as much as you worship yourself, and none of them are indicators of good mental health.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He pretended he already has the fascist powers he wants.

This morning, Trump—or someone posting as though they were him—threatened to have the FCC inflict "rebuke or punishment" on Meet the Press host Kristen Welker. Her offense, according to Trump, was pointing out that Trump had had "mixed results" in endorsing candidates.

The First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States specifically bars Trump or any other government official from trying to "punish" journalists, or anyone else, merely because they said something he interprets as criticism.

 

That said, Welker's observation is factually true. Trump is extremely sensitive about his ability to "win" primary elections with his endorsements. He's made a habit of "endorsing" candidates who are running unopposed or with no serious challenger to run up his score. And when his chosen candidate loses, Trump has a habit of attacking them for making him look bad, as he did recently with his "friend" Cory Mills.

He's so fixated on this that he once endorsed "Eric" in the 2022 Missouri Senate primary. (Eric Schmitt defeated Eric Greitens in that race; Trump never specified a last name until the election was safely over.)

But with Trump's brand absolutely toxic after 18 months back in office, more and more Republicans are willing to challenge him—and some who do are winning their primaries. Ten candidates for Congress or statewide office that he's endorsed so far have lost in the primaries. That's as many as in the last three election cycles combined.

Why does this matter?

• "Rebuke or punishment" for criticizing the leader only happens in dictatorships. 

• Making up things to throw tantrums about isn't a sign of great cognitive health.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He tried to project strength as his personal and political problems got worse by the moment.

Trump is so incapable of admitting any kind of mistake or failure that he once told a group of evangelical Christian leaders that he'd never even asked God for forgiveness. (By Christian standards this is, to put it mildly, blasphemy.) Perhaps the only time he's ever even come close to apologizing in public was during the 2016 campaign, immediately after the infamous Access Hollywood video in which he talked about grabbing women "by the pussy" without consent—and even then, he tried to deflect blame onto others.

But over the past week, he's been uncharacteristically back on his heels. A casual reference to his aide Natalie Harp, sometimes referred to as the "human printer" for her habit of carrying around printouts of news articles meant to soothe Trump emotionally, blew up into a major scandal. Members of his own inner circle told reporters they were worried about the intensity of the hold the erratic Harp had over Trump and his agenda. Those letters showed that Harp shared Trump's unusual habit of incorrectly capitalizing random words in the middle of sentences, suggesting she was the author of far more of his social media announcements than previously suspected.  

Possibly related, Trump's wife Melania got into a public argument with him yesterday in full view of television cameras, which the White House unlawfully tried to get shut down as Melania stormed away.

Trump is also suffering defections from previously loyal constituencies as his approval rating has sunk to the low 30s—inches above where Nixon was when he was forced to resign. Congressional Republicans who can afford to are distancing themselves. One Republican voter in a swing Ohio district where Trump has backed an incumbent Congressman accused of child abuse, was asked about his message for Trump. His response: "Resign." Even beef ranchers are lashing out at Trump, furious for dropping protections on beef imports while herds recover from a screwworm infestation caused by Trump's killing a cheap eradication program.

This morning, Trump seemed to try to get back on his feet by lashing out at friends like Canada and foes like Iran in equal measure. Iran's response was predictable: mockery and threats to carry out assassination attempts in revenge for his assassination of regime leaders at the start of the war. But Canada's was much more serious. Trump had demanded that Canada "fall in line" or suffer "far worse" consequences than tariffs, an approach that couldn't possibly anger the Canadian public more than if that had been the intent. Prime Minister Mark Carney's government prepared to release details on the American industries it will attack with retaliatory tariffs, and Ontario premier Doug Ford threatened to cut off the billions of dollars worth of electricity that Canadian power plants provide to northeastern states. If that happened, it likely physically couldn't be replaced on the American side.

Trump responded by mocking Ford's dead brother. 

Why does this matter?

• The economy would be much, much stronger right now if the President of the United States had the emotional control of a toddler. 

• Nobody who can't keep their personal problems from affecting their work is fit to serve as president.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He took two completely opposite positions on tariffs in the space of a single 24-hour period.

Trump has imposed new tariffs at an astronomical 50% rate on a range of Canadian goods. They went into effect at 12:01 AM today, and will raise the price for American consumers on auto parts, alcoholic beverages, medical supplies, and products made of essential raw materials like steel or wood. Canada is the United States' single largest and most economically integrated trading partner.

 

Predictably, Canada responded with dollar-for-dollar tariffs of its own, which will go into effect next month. These are targeted at products manufactured in critical swing states in the upcoming Senate elections. The Canadian economy is smaller than the United States', which would normally put them at a disadvantage in this kind of tit-for-tat response, but the Canadian public has rallied around the aggressive stance taken by Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has been working to decouple the economic links between the two countries in favor of more stable trading relationships overseas. In fact, in a very real sense, Carney owes his current job to Trump: his Liberal Party was widely expected to lose in to the Conservatives in the 2025 elections, until Trump's first round of tariffs and taunts about annexing Canada as the "51st state" rallied voters around Carney.

As with most of the import taxes Trump has imposed on American consumers, it's not immediately clear that he has any legal authority to do so. Most of the tariffs he's tried to impose have been overturned in court, although with the inflationary damage already done to Americans' bank accounts.

But less than 24 hours before raising prices on Americans who buy Canadian goods, Trump took exactly the opposite tack on another trade issue. He said he was temporarily cutting tariffs on beef, and said he was doing so explicitly to lower prices for Americans. The cut was tiny relative to overall consumption—about three week's worth, and then only if those savings actually trickle down the supply chain all the way to grocery stores—but for once, he was correctly framing tariffs as something that raise prices for Americans.

At least, that was what his social media post on the subject said, and Trump is very often not the author of policy pronouncements that go out under his name. In person, when asked about it by reporters, Trump was much hazier, and wouldn't (or couldn't) even say what countries he'd be lowering beef tariffs on.

Why does this matter?

• It never gets any less stupid to start a trade war with your largest and most important economic ally. 

• Nothing that raises costs American consumers while hurting American participation in the world economy going forward is a good idea.  

• A few weeks of slightly cheaper hamburger probably aren't going to make Americans forget about all the other reasons why they hate the Trump economy.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He once again declared peace, only to be immediately contradicted by the country he's now losing a war to. 

Overnight, Trump posted to his social media that he had established the "perimiters" of a deal to end the war in Iran. (He probably meant "parameters.") This came hours after other news reports that other Persian Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, were pressuring him to deescalate.

Of course, Trump has made precisely this promise—to call off hostilities because of a peace deal that is just around the corner—at least seven times before now in the space of a five-month war. And today, as in all such previous cases, Iran's government is immediately contradicting Trump about what he is claiming Iran has agreed to.

In particular, Iran's foreign minister dug in on the future of the Strait of Hormuz, saying that in spite of Trump's claims, shipping "will in no way return to the status it was before February 28th." The scoreboard is on Iran's side here: Trump has claimed throughout the entire war, in spite of all evidence to the contrary that the strait was open. In reality, even during the brief period after Trump signed the humiliating "memorandum of understanding" to open talks in June, the passage has been completely or mostly blockaded by Iran's credible threats to attack vessels it hasn't authorized.

Trump may be gambling that he can get away with lying about what Iran has agreed to because American audiences are less likely to hear its government's rebuttals. If so, it doesn't seem to be working: the American public remains overwhelmingly opposed to the war and disapproving of Trump's handling of it.

But there are also grimmer reasons why Trump may have no choice but to retreat. The military's supply of interceptors to protect bases and ships is running critically low. The trickle of oil flowing through the Gulf won't be enough to prevent a major supply shock when dwindling reserves run dry. And, most of all, Trump's only real weapon, short of what would surely be a catastrophic invasion, is long-range bombardment—and that simply isn't working to suppress Iranian counterattacks or dislodge the government.

Iran isn't the only country Trump is lying about this weekend. His social media post claimed that "the Country of Israel joins me in this commitment." That was news to the government of Israel.

Why does this matter?

• Even people who might have been fooled the first few times you told a big lie eventually catch on. 

• No amount of Trump pretending Iran is on his side will make Iran be on his side. 

• At this point the question is not whether Trump will reach a peace agreement, but how catastrophically bad for the United States that agreement will be.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He got in the way of sports, again.

Trump attended the World Cup final at the Meadowlands in New Jersey today. As is usually the case when Trump goes to a sporting event, his visit resulted in three things happening:

1. Loud, sustained boos. Trump is deeply unpopular with both American and international audiences, and fans at sporting events always let him know it. (That's why he's tried to promote the annual Army-Navy football game—cadets under military orders can't boo him.)
   
   Today was no exception: when he took to the field to take part in the trophy ceremony, he was loudly booed.
   
   
2. Disruption and delays. As usual, Trump's security requirements forced long waits for fans who paid for tickets—up to three hours in the hot sun, just to get through security. Fans were told to arrive four hours early for this game, although there were no waits at all for other capacity crowds at the Meadowlands during the tournament.
   
   Journalists in particular reported being turned away in spite of having valid credentials.
   
   
3. Making himself the center of attention. In spite of the loud boos that greeted his appearance, Trump seemed to consider himself part of the celebration for the victorious Spanish team, and had to be cajoled off the stage by FIFA president Gianni Infantino.
   
   
   
   
   
   It was an eerie repeat of Trump's bizarre performance at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, a warm-up event for this year's tournament. Then, Trump refused to yield the stage to the tournament's winners, instead standing center stage with the trophy while boos rained down on him. A tournament official had to physically take hold of the trophy and guide Trump to the waiting Senegalese team, and he still stood in front of them as they celebrated. 
   

 

Why does this matter?

• Past a certain point, the need to be the center of attention becomes pathological. 

What did Donald Trump do today?

He self-soothed on social media, telling himself he was popular and everyone liked his "State Fair" debacle.

Trump was up early this morning, posting to social media as he does most of the day, most days. Some of his posts concerned serious matters of state: for example, he insisted in all caps that "IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING" and that it would "TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA." Iran says that no such meeting was asked for and none is taking place: "We will not have any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days."

 

Other posts dealt with the Supreme Court rulings, in particular ones he lost. He complained bitterly about a ruling saying that ballots mailed on or before Election Day must be counted in elections. (That's not a typo; that's his actual stance.) And he insisted that a ruling that he couldn't fire a member of the Federal Reserve Board for no reason didn't really mean what it said. (Trump is trying to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook so that he can replace her himself and appoint someone who will vote for lower interest rates. That would make the present high-inflation environment much worse, but Trump would stand to make hundreds of millions or billions of dollars from bond investments and mortgage refinancing on his properties.)

He neglected to mention one other loss he suffered today, when the Supreme Court denied his final appeal of the $5 million verdict against him for defamation. A jury found that Trump lied and defamed Carroll by falsely denying that he had raped her.

But the main theme was emotional self-care. He posted that he was getting his "Highest Poll Numbers Ever." He's been insisting frequently in recent days that his "REAL POLL NUMBERS" are higher than they've ever been. Trump has a long history of declaring how universally beloved he imagines himself to be, particularly when his polls are at their worst, and the present climate is no exception. He's matched or beaten his all-time low in approval polls taken in the past week.

 

He also found a new crowd size to worry about. In a post at 6:27 AM, he asked this surprisingly plaintive question:

Do you think people appreciate what a fantastic job we did in building and operating the Great American State Fair at the National Mall, packed with happy people, and everybody loving it?

Trump has been reeling from a series of embarrassments over his "Great American State Fair." It started with virtually all of its musical acts cancelling after learning that they'd been hired for a partisan political event run by the pro-Trump "Freedom 250" organization, rather than an official (and politically neutral) "America 250" event. (And one of the few remaining acts, 90s novelty rap act Vanilla Ice, was rained out.)

But more recently, the GASF has attracted attention for the lack of attention it's getting. It fills up most of the National Mall, which on summer days is normally packed with tourists taking in the Capitol, the Smithsonian museums, and the various monuments. But there has been an uncanny absence of people during the GASF's run. That's been driven in part by Trump's unpopularity, in part by the lack of entertainment, and in part by the incredibly slapdash and underwhelming attractions.

There is a single Ferris wheel. There are food stands marked with pictures of food that isn't being sold there. There are tiny booths meant to showcase each state, but some are empty and some are just odd. There is a plywood and vinyl-sticker replica of the arch Trump wants to build, which is deteriorating in the rain and propped up level by scrap wood. And most of all, there is a lot of green space.

TMZ DC with perhaps the most brutal video from Trump's Great American State Fair, showing Dr. Oz on stage bragging to Dean Cain about how big the crowd is, only for the reporter to pan around and show absolutely nobody is there. Original post: x.com/i/status/207...

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— Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona.bsky.social) June 29, 2026 at 4:39 PM

 

Did the rapture happen overnight? Fox & Friends is broadcasting from a completely empty Trump state fair on the National Mall

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) June 29, 2026 at 7:27 AM

my god

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— huck mason (@tylerhuckabee.bsky.social) June 30, 2026 at 1:48 PM

Peter Doocy claims "people are still coming out" to Trump's 250th fair -- even as the camera shot shows clearly behind him that almost nobody is there 😆

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) June 28, 2026 at 10:38 AM

 

Don’t have to worry about fighting crowds at the Great American State Fair in D.C. One fair attendee comments: “I’ve seen bigger crowds in the waiting room for a colonoscopy”

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— Gwyllm Llwydd (@gwyllm.bsky.social) June 27, 2026 at 5:08 PM

 

Why does this matter?

• Presidents are allowed to have emotional needs, but there is such a thing as being too emotionally unstable for the job. 

What did Donald Trump do today?

He said there were "no limits" on his power.

Trump's "peace deal" with Iran is receiving contemptuous reviews from essentially everyone not currently working for Trump. Israeli officials are calling it a "catastrophic capitulation." Republicans in Congress are saying it's Trump surrendering to Iran, not the other way around. Even Iran—which is already getting what it wants—is openly mocking Trump for agreeing to their terms, calling Trump's signature on the memorandum a "glorious defeat."

Asked what he'd learned today about the limits of his power, Trump simply responded that there aren't any. More precisely, he said, "I haven’t learned that lesson yet. I know there are [sic], but there are no limits." 

This is more or less what Trump has been saying all along: that as president, he can do whatever he wants, that he can stretch his promise to be a "dictator for a day" as far as he likes. That's not a popular position in a country that thinks of itself as a democracy, and it sparked some of the largest demonstrations in American history.

In reality—and even in practice—there are limits on Trump's power. Even during his second term, when he made a point of installing people purely for their loyalty to him above all other considerations, Trump has struggled to do nearly as much with that authority as he would have liked. (Many of them turned out to be less loyal than he thought they'd be, which is one reason that leaders who appoint people for competence rather than obedience generally get better results.) 

Iran itself is an example of one kind of limit on Trump's power: the Republican-led Congress put no real pressure on him to comply with laws governing when military force can be used, but that legal loophole didn't change the practical reality on the ground that Trump blundered into, leading to the disastrous outcome that those same Republicans are now furious about.

That sort of thing matters because, for all his bluster, Trump is very constrained by political realities. His plan to build a series of concentration camps is already being unwound as a result of public pushback. He was forced to abandon his plan to create a multi-billion-dollar slush fund to reward pro-Trump insurrectionists not by a court decision, but by the furious public reaction. 

The judiciary, which makes up a co-equal branch of the government that Trump is a part of, retains the ability to act as a check on Trump's power. Trump has been forced to rehire illegally fired government workers. He cannot spend money Congress hasn't appropriated, and he can't refuse to spend money that it has. Probably the most important way that courts have kept Trump from exercising the powers of a dictator has been in the criminal courts. No matter how many of his personal criminal defense attorneys Trump has appointed to key DOJ roles, they cannot create criminal liability where none exists. Judges have thrown out spurious charges selectively targeted at opposition politicians. Grand juries have refused to indict Trump's enemies for imaginary politically-motivated accusations. Trial juries have refused to convict protestors for minor, harmless acts of civil disobedience. Virtually all of Trump's campaign threats to jail Americans simply because he thinks of them as enemies have failed.

Among other things recently discussed on this site that Trump demonstrably doesn't have the ability to do—either the legal authority or the political muscle—include:

• revoke the broadcast licenses of TV networks whose content includes criticism of him 
• build a "military top-secret ballroom" without appropriations and permission from Congress
• pay himself $10 billion of taxpayer money 
• unilaterally dictate who's allowed to be elected to Congress 
• get an effective nuclear peace deal done with Iran for a mere $1.7 billion in unfrozen Iranian funds (as compared with the present $300 billion new-revenue figure currently on the table for a less secure arrangement)
• get Americans to believe that stopping an individual cargo ship near the Persian Gulf is a "GREAT AND BRILLIANT" military victory 
• force Iran to agree to any peace deal other than what it wanted
• literally erase the record of his two impeachments 
• dictate what gasoline costs just by declaring it 
• get Americans to believe that the economy is doing well in the middle of an inflation spike
• prevent Iran from charging fees to ships using the Strait of Hormuz
• enforce a ceasefire for more than one literal minute
• put reporters in jail for telling the public about unclassified information that makes him look bad
• make good on his threats to order the US military to conduct unlawful attacks on civilian targets
• get people to worship him as they would Jesus Christ   

Those examples are all from one month, April 2026. 

Why does this matter?

• Donald Trump believing he is a dictator or even a god doesn't make it true.  

• The president is one part of the government of the United States, and is answerable to the people of the United States, whether he likes it or not. 

What did Donald Trump do today?

He invented an election conspiracy theory that was ridiculous even by his standards.

 

Early this morning, Trump made baseless claims that Democrats in California were somehow "trying to STEAL THE GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA PRIMARY, AND THE MAYOR OF LOS ANGELES, PRIMARY, AWAY FROM TWO GREAT REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES." More ominously, he claimed that the US Attorney in Los Angeles was looking into it, although that office refused to confirm any investigation into what has been a busy but orderly election.

Trump was impeached, and indicted in both federal and state courts, for his part in the criminal conspiracy to illegally keep him in power despite the results of the 2020 presidential election. He did not provide any evidence.

Even by Trump standards, these are bizarre lies. Republican candidates are leading in both of these nonpartisan primaries, where the top two candidates advance to the general election. As of tonight, Republican Steve Hilton has the most votes of any single candidate in the gubernatorial race, and Republican Spencer Pratt is in second place in the LA mayoral primary. In fact, if Democrats were trying to "steal" races in the California primaries, they'd be doing a terrible job of it. Republicans and Democrats will likely each have a candidate in every statewide race, with the possible exception of Insurance Commissioner. 

It's unlikely even Trump believes what he's saying about the California elections. It's true that he's famously emotionally ill-equipped to handle losing: after the results of the election became clear in December 2020, he threw a plate of food against the wall of the White House when his Attorney General refused to take further part in his efforts to cling to power. 

But he's also made clear on many occasions that he doesn't really regard elections as binding, at least not on him, which may explain why he's so willing to tell obvious lies. To this day, Trump still explains away his loss in the November 2020 election by claiming that the January 6th riots were a dirty trick played by the "Biden FBI." Astute readers may note that Trump was president that whole time, and the FBI was led by his appointees (who President Biden retained).

Trump's general strategy, even going back to before he was first elected, has been to undermine the basic concept of elections. He's declared them "rigged" even when he or his party eventually won, spread conspiracy theories about voting by mail even as he does it himself, and invented preposterous stories about literal millions of never-detected "illegal" votes supposedly cast by undocumented immigrants to explain why he lost the popular vote in 2016 to Hillary Clinton. 

Trump didn't mention it in his rant, but there are congressional districts where the runoff will have two Democratic candidates. That's because the districts were drawn up by the California State Assembly to be virtually guaranteed to elect a Democrat. That partisan gerrymandering was done in direct response to Trump's demand that every Republican-led state do the same, and only after several of those states had. 

All told, Republicans are likely to net about 6 seats as a result. That's generally expected to be far too little to prevent an anti-Trump wave in the midterm elections. By way of comparison, Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House of Representatives in 2018, when Trump's net approval rating was -10% at this point in the cycle. As of the latest 2026 polls, it's -25% and dropping fast.

 

Why does this matter?

• States don't need Donald Trump's permission to hold elections. 

• There's only one reason a historically unpopular politician would try to undermine public confidence in democracy. 

• You don't tell lies this obvious unless you think the people listening to you are very, very stupid.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He once again brought up the subject of his popularity.

Trump had another lazy Sunday afternoon, with nothing more pressing than "executive time" on his schedule, which is the euphemism his aides use for time he spends on social media, watching TV, or sleeping. That gave him the opportunity to reflect on his boutique social media service about a favorite subject: how much he thinks Americans love him.

It's no exaggeration to say that Trump is historically unpopular. No president since modern polling began with the Eisenhower administration with has ever been this unpopular at this point in his term, and few presidents have ever been as unpopular at any point as he is right now—not even fi
rst-term Donald Trump.

Only Richard Nixon was less popular at this point in his second term, and in May 1974 he was just a few months away from being forced to resign in disgrace.

Trump's unpopularity is crashing through boundaries not normally possible. He's underwater in ruby-red states like Mississippi, Montana, and Utah.

 

Polls aren't perfect predictors of elections, but that suggests that buyers' remorse has set in so hard with American voters that Trump would lose another presidential election today by an absurd margin in the electoral college. 

Even Trump-friendly poll aggregators like RealClearPolitics.com agree: Trump is approaching the level of unpopularity he spiked to after the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Trump didn't specify which "Poll Numbers" he thought were "Excellent," although he rarely does, and when he does it's usually clear he's not understanding what he's seeing. Last month, he gushed over a poll showing him with 96% approval, either not knowing or not caring that it was a poll of attendees at a pro-Trump political conference. He also seized on CNN's Harry Enten mentioning that his support was at 100% among self-described "MAGA voters"—meaning, again, that Trump's self-proclaimed supporters support him. Enten later clarified that a better way to describe Trump's popularity—which was higher then than it is now—was as a "steady fall into the abyss." 

Of course, Trump—who "jokes" about attempting another coup and staying on past the end of his second term—isn't on the ballot and won't ever be again. But his party is in 2026, and in spite of aggressive gerrymandering done at Trump's behest to disenfranchise Democratic voters, especially African-Americans, it now seems likely that Trump will be a historical anchor in the midterms. Trump may even cost his party the Senate, in a year when the map of seats up for election is terrible for Democrats.  

Projected chance of winning the House (racetothewh.com)

 

All that having been said, there is a smidgen of good polling news for Trump, whose increasingly fragile health has been a real concern. By a plurality of 45-31, Americans believe that the 79-year-old Trump could still successfully beat up an 8-year-old boy. (24% thought it was too close to call.)

Why does this matter?

• The only thing more pathetic than thinking you can trick other people into liking you is tricking yourself into believing you've done it.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He stayed up all night trying to fight the Iran War with cringe social media.

Trump was once again awake in the middle of the night for no apparent reason, and once again turned to his boutique social media site to pass the time. At 4:05 AM, Trump told Iran to "get smart soon!" over an AI image of him in sunglasses carrying an assault rifle in front of an explosion-strewn landscape. 

The good news for Trump's bout with insomnia was that he was only scheduled for "executive time"—the Trump administration euphemism for time during the work day he spends watching TV or napping—until 11 AM, so he may have gotten some sleep last night. (In fact, Trump is getting a great deal of sleep during the day in his second term, much of it on live TV.)

This evening, he followed up with another AI slop post, a map showing the Strait of Hormuz renamed the Strait of Trump in big gold letters. 

Trump likes renaming places, especially for himself, so this is at least consistent behavior. But the map also showed ships briskly transiting through the "Strait of Trump," which in reality, of course, they aren't: in spite of Trump's uncountable declarations of victory in the war that now enters its third month, Iran continues to have complete control over shipping out of the Persian Gulf.

It's not clear what wartime goals Trump hopes to accomplish by posting memes, except maybe to self-soothe a bit. Unfortunately for him, he's not even winning the propaganda war. With gas prices spiking yet again and no end in sight, Trump's war on Iran is extremely unpopular with Americans, almost as unpopular as Trump himself. And as much natural talent as Trump might have as an internet troll, Iranian accounts posting more slickly-produced and, to be blunt, less grandpa-ish content are getting a lot more attention.

Why does this matter?

• Irregular sleep habits, like insomnia at night and excessive sleepiness during the day, are not signs of good cognitive health in the elderly. 

• Posting a cartoon of what it will look like after you somehow win a war is not the same thing as winning a war.  

What did Donald Trump do today?

He self-soothed with some polling data that absolutely does not mean what he thinks it means.

Neither the public nor the White House press corps has seen Trump in the flesh since Wednesday night, leading to some now-routine gallows humor online about his failing health. There were rumors he'd been secretly whisked off to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, something that has happened at least three times in the past. Enough people were prematurely celebrating his demise that the White House was forced to put out a statement insisting that Trump was alive and well (although, as of the end of the day on Saturday, still unseen). 

It's hard to say what Trump knows about the widespread cultural phenomenon of Americans joking about what they'll do when "It Happens." He's famously kept in a bubble by his own staff to help manage his moods, and fed a diet of "uplifting" stories about his popularity. But even if Trump doesn't know about Americans actively rooting for his demise by preparing celebratory playlists on Spotify, he knows enough about his plummeting popularity to complain bitterly about polls showing it.

That may be why he—or, if he was indisposed, someone with access to his social media accounts—posted graphs showing that he is far and away the most beloved figure in the history of American politics. 96% of those polled approved of his performance in office. 94% agreed with the statement "Donald Trump has been the best President in my lifetime." And 91% approved of his trade war against the rest of the world, or as the poll put it, his "use of tariffs to reduce America's trade deficit and create a level playing field for American workers and businesses."

 

 

Of course, what Trump doesn't seem to have realized is that the graphs also show who responded to the poll: not Americans overall, who now give him approval ratings in the low 30s and who
overwhelmingly say his trade war has hurt the American economy. Instead, it was a poll of people attending CPAC—a political conference attended only by Trump's strongest supporters.

In other words, Trump supporters working in politics support Trump.  

This isn't that hard to understand, but this isn't the only time Trump has gotten confused about that recently. When CNN's poll analyst Harry Enten put up a graphic last month showing 100% support for Trump among "MAGA voters"—in other words, people who self-identified as supporting Trump in the same poll where they were asked about their support—he couldn't stop bragging about it. Enten said this week that a more accurate way of depicting Trump's popularity was "a steady fall into the abyss" that was still happening.

Trump used "emotional support polls" in his first term, too, claiming that his approval rating with Republicans was sky-high: over the course of that term, he reported numbers ranging from 93-96%. But in those cases, he wasn't confused over what polls meant—he was just making the numbers up. 

Why does this matter?

• Saying people like you doesn't make it true, which most people figure out by the time they reach elementary school. 

• It's bad if a president isn't even pretending to care about Americans who don't support him politically, especially when that's about two-thirds of all Americans. 

• If Trump wasn't profoundly confused about what he was posting, then the only other explanation is that he thinks people who read his social media posts are incredibly stupid.