What did Donald Trump do today?

He said that the Strait of Hormuz was "in great shape" as Iranian attacks destroyed two oil tankers.

At 7:47 PM EDT, Trump told reporters that the Strait of Hormuz was "in great shape" and boasted that Iran's military was in ruin.

For obvious political reasons, Trump needs markets, insurance companies, shipping companies, and above all the American public to believe this. So far, he's not getting any takers. 

The problem with Trump's approach—repeatedly declaring victory and then demanding that everyone act as though that were true—is that it relies on the Khamenei regime, now fully in control on the ground in Iran, to do what Trump wants it to do, instead of actually contesting the war Trump has started with it.  

Trump's remarks came an hour after reports of two oil tankers being set afire in the Persian Gulf. Iranian sea drones, cheap and easily hidden unmanned weapons that can be manufactured in quantity without specialized facilities, are believed to be responsible. Iran has stockpiled large numbers of these drones, as seen in a 2025 video. 

Trump should have known about the possibility of naval drone warfare: Ukraine—whose traditional navy has also mostly been destroyed, like Trump claim's Iran's has been—has used them to excellent effect against Russian ships.

An oil tanker ablaze in the Persian Gulf this evening, just off the port of Basra in Iraq

The Persian Gulf is the body of water inland from the Strait of Hormuz. These attacks were carried out in waters that are less easy for Iran to control than the Strait, where the shipping channel is just a few kilometers wide.

At least one person is confirmed dead in the attacks. The White House has not elaborated on Trump's insistence that the Gulf safe for tankers like the ones destroyed today.

However, Trump's claim that it's safe to ship oil through the Strait of Hormuz is at least partially true: Iran has been shipping out more oil since the war began (2.1m barrels) than it was averaging before Trump's attacks.

Why does this matter?

• There is a failed strategy, and then there is the kind of failed strategy that helps your enemy ship more of its essential economic product through a war zone. 

• Demanding that people believe what the leader tells them and not what they can clearly see happening, even if their lives depend on it, is what dictators do. 

• Lies this transparent only make Trump and the United States look weak.