What did Donald Trump do today?
He once again declared peace, only to be immediately contradicted by the country he's now losing a war to.
Overnight, Trump posted to his social media that he had established the "perimiters" of a deal to end the war in Iran. (He probably meant "parameters.") This came hours after other news reports that other Persian Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, were pressuring him to deescalate.
Of course, Trump has made precisely this promise—to call off hostilities because of a peace deal that is just around the corner—at least seven times before now in the space of a five-month war. And today, as in all such previous cases, Iran's government is immediately contradicting Trump about what he is claiming Iran has agreed to.
In particular, Iran's foreign minister dug in on the future of the Strait of Hormuz, saying that in spite of Trump's claims, shipping "will in no way return to the status it was before February 28th." The scoreboard is on Iran's side here: Trump has claimed throughout the entire war, in spite of all evidence to the contrary that the strait was open. In reality, even during the brief period after Trump signed the humiliating "memorandum of understanding" to open talks in June, the passage has been completely or mostly blockaded by Iran's credible threats to attack vessels it hasn't authorized.
Trump may be gambling that he can get away with lying about what Iran has agreed to because American audiences are less likely to hear its government's rebuttals. If so, it doesn't seem to be working: the American public remains overwhelmingly opposed to the war and disapproving of Trump's handling of it.
But there are also grimmer reasons why Trump may have no choice but to retreat. The military's supply of interceptors to protect bases and ships is running critically low. The trickle of oil flowing through the Gulf won't be enough to prevent a major supply shock when dwindling reserves run dry. And, most of all, Trump's only real weapon, short of what would surely be a catastrophic invasion, is long-range bombardment—and that simply isn't working to suppress Iranian counterattacks or dislodge the government.
Iran isn't the only country Trump is lying about this weekend. His social media post claimed that "the Country of Israel joins me in this commitment." That was news to the government of Israel.
Why does this matter?
- Even people who might have been fooled the first few times you told a big lie eventually catch on.
- No amount of Trump pretending Iran is on his side will make Iran be on his side.
- At this point the question is not whether Trump will reach a peace agreement, but how catastrophically bad for the United States that agreement will be.