What did Donald Trump do today?
He once again insisted that the extremely closed Strait of Hormuz was open.
Trump's alleged deal-to-start-talking-about-a-deal with Iran has now been pushed back for about the 41st time, with the signing now supposedly taking place on Friday in Switzerland.
It's still not clear what, if anything, will be signed: Trump is the only person on the US side volunteering information, and much of that is obviously false. For example, he once again insisted today that the Strait of Hormuz is already open.
It very much is not.
Not only are ships not transiting now, but there isn't expected to be a quick return to normal operations even if and when Iran gives its blessing. Any resumption of hostilities—something that seems quite likely to occur, given how humiliating the terms Iran is offering are—would trap new ships in the Gulf.
Trump has claimed that some ships have left the Persian Gulf under cover of darkness with guidance from the US Navy. It's still not clear at all that this is true—for one thing, his own energy secretary didn't seem to know about it—but if so, it amounts to a one-way trickle out, at a tiny fraction of the normal two-way volume of traffic. Meanwhile, merchant vessels and insurers are continuing to acknowledge Iran's de facto control over the strait.
Iran punctuated that control this morning with a stern warning against attempting any transit, directly contradicting Trump's claim that it was already cooperating. Iran also rejected Trump's claim that passage through the strait would be free—as it had been for essentially all of modern history before Trump's disastrous war—reiterating that it would be enforcing "fees" on vessels passing through.
Even if those fees aren't collected, it still leaves the military junta running Iran asserting sovereignty over a formerly international waterway of critical significance for the global economy.
Why does this matter?
- Lies this pointless and obvious only show weakness.
- A war that leaves the enemy nation with more power and control than it had at the start is a war you've lost.