What did Donald Trump do today?
He blabbed about a top secret operation and in the same breath admitted he'd screwed it up.
Last month, Trump hinted at the existence of an otherwise secret plan to give weapons to Iran's Kurdish minority, who would in turn distribute them among opponents of Iran's ruling regime and overthrow it in the chaos caused by Trump's war.
In reality, of course, what happened is that the war made the clerical-military alliance stronger and less vulnerable to internal challenges than ever. The attacks killed a number of senior leaders on the first day, including the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the nature of the regime hasn't changed. It is now led by Ali's son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who is one of the few surviving members of his family.
Trump has been the only member of his administration to even hint about US plans to arm Iranians, meaning that it was classified and should not have been spoken about at all. That's especially true because the United States is no more popular with anti-government Iranians than the Khamenei regime is, and having public American backing weakens the movement.
Today, he elaborated: not only had the secret plan been put into action, but it had failed. Trump apparently brought up the subject with reporters just to complain that he was "not happy with the Kurds" for keeping the weapons.
It's not clear why Trump thought that giving weapons to the relatively isolated and ethnically separatist Kurdish population would be a conduit to the urban, majority Persian protestors in a different part of the country that he had wanted to prop up. It's especially baffling given the lack of trust that he should have expected. Trump famously betrayed the Syrian Kurds who had been helping the United States campaign against ISIS. More than ten thousand of them died in that conflict, after which Trump called for their ethnic cleansing.
In an attempt to minimize the scope of the problem, Trump claimed that it had only been a "small amount" of weapons, but this is almost certainly a lie. For one thing, it was "a lot of guns" the last time Trump talked about it, not "a small amount." And for another, there wouldn't be much point in sending only a few token weapons into a country the size and population of the entire US eastern time zone.
While there is a growing movement supporting Kurdish independence from Iran, it does not yet have autonomy in practice, and the IRGC is still in de facto control of Kurdish regions. That means that one possible outcome is that any American military hardware will simply end up in the hands of the Iranian military.
Why does this matter?
- Donald Trump's need to blame everyone else for his mistakes doesn't justify blurting out classified information.
- When you rush into war on the assumption that it'll all work itself out and other people will win it for you, you get this kind of stupid and slapdash thing.