What did Donald Trump do today?
He said losing free navigation on the most important remaining sea lane out of the Middle East was "fine and dandy."
There are two main shipping routes for virtually all Middle Eastern oil: the Persian Gulf through the Gulf of Oman, and the Red Sea via the Gulf of Aden. Both have narrow chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, respectively.
Iran, on the northern coast of the Strait of Hormuz, has had de facto control over Persian Gulf shipping, resulting in huge spikes in the price of oil and other essential goods like fertilizer and plastic feedstocks. Yesterday, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen seized control of territory allowing them to control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. At the same time, a major Saudi oil pipeline was attacked from within Iraq, forcing its closure.
This means that Iran or its proxies are now able to take control of both major shipping lanes in the region—and, therefore, all worldwide traffic going through the Suez Canal as well. Shipping prices and oil prices have already surged dramatically in response. Saudi Arabia, the second-biggest oil producing country in the world, had been shifting its output towards the Red Sea since Iran took control of the Persian Gulf lanes, but now faces a major crisis with both its export routes in jeopardy.
Asked about the situation on his golf vacation in Ireland today, Trump said that "everything's going to work out fine and dandy."
He did not elaborate, other than to say that the Houthis had supposedly called and said they didn't want to fight the United States. White House officials were unable to substantiate that claim, but Trump routinely announces that Iran has surrendered, and that ships are once again passing freely through the Strait of Hormuz. (They haven't, and they're not.)
Why does this matter?
- A president who had any clue what was happening probably wouldn't describe this situation as "fine and dandy."
- A president who did understand the situation and had an idea to get himself out of this mess would probably take this opportunity to share it.