What did Donald Trump do today?

He once again lost control of his "ceasefire."

There were escalating tit-for-tat attacks between the United States and Iran today. They began late Thursday as Iran fired on and damaged a Taiwan-flagged ship after warning vessels not to proceed through without the regime's permission. The United States launched airstrikes on Iranian targets in return, after which Iran used drones to attack targets in Bahrain. The United States responded again this evening with another wave of airstrikes.

Neither side appears to have done much serious damage, but that works to Iran's advantage. Its remaining military targets are concealed, mobile, or hardened. Commercial ships and refineries in the Gulf region, however, are inherently vulnerable to the low-cost, high-volume attacks Iran has been relying on.

The point of Iran's initial strike was to demonstrate that it can and will enforce its newfound control of the Strait of Hormuz. It's not necessary for Iran to destroy or seize vessels to make that point, and the companies that ship through the strait know it. Traffic, which had been proceeding at a fraction of its prewar levels, immediately ground to a near-halt after the attack on the first ship.

In other words, the situation has more or less regressed to—or failed to advance from—exactly where it was before the memorandum of understanding was signed. Both sides are conducting attacks without regard for the "ceasefire" Trump unilaterally declared in April, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

Trump is falling right back into his old habits, too, rattling his saber on social media in the apparent hope that this time it will work. He posted this at 7:13 PM this evening: 

United States aircraft just struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites, for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN! It is very possible that they will never learn! There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist! President DJT  

This may work emotional self-soothing on Trump's part, but as brinksmanship goes, it's a pretty empty threat. Trump has already learned the hard way that the military regime controlling the country cannot be bombed out of existence. Iran is much too large, rugged, and populous to be invaded. Trump has already tried to extricate himself from the war by promising to commit literal war crimes against Iran's civilian population—something he could at least plausibly try to do, if Congress or military leaders didn't stop him—but has always backed down from those threats, too.

Part of Iran's boldness likely has to do with the fact that, once the memorandum (generally understood to be a humiliating concession on Trump's part) was signed, he openly admitted that he was desperate to avoid the looming "economic catastrophe" that would come with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.
 

Why does this matter?

• As a general rule, threats to defeat the enemy you've already tried and failed to defeat don't work.  

• Whether or not Donald Trump is capable of admitting it to himself, his handling of this war was an unmitigated catastrophe.