What did Donald Trump do today?

He fumed helplessly as his "understanding" with Iran fell apart.

The "memorandum of understanding" that Trump signed is, almost word for word, the exact same 14-point set of demands that Iran made in early May. At the time, Trump rejected it out of hand, claiming that he wasn't at all worried about the economic consequences of Iran's successful blockade of the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil supply flows.

Six weeks later, signed memorandum in hand, Trump lashed out at "stupid" people saying he'd made a terrible deal, who he accused of not understanding that a worldwide depression was imminent if the Strait didn't reopen. 

It's generally considered a bad idea to openly admit that you're bargaining from a position of weakness. But given that global oil reserves are almost completely empty, setting up an unprecedented oil shock, he's probably right about that. As Trump put it with unusual clarity at the G7 summit on Wednesday, "You want to see bedlam? We run out of reserves in about four weeks." 

To Trump's enormous relief, Iran finally allowed a slight increase in traffic through the strait, to about 20% of the prewar daily volume.

And then today, three nations—Iran and two at least notional allies—threw the process into chaos again. Iran announced that it was once again imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, and then abruptly reversed course. The reason the Iranian government gave was that Israel has continued to bomb Lebanon, and the end of that campaign was a precondition for Iran. Israel's government, which helped goad Trump into starting the war in the first place, has adamantly refused to be bound by the terms Trump accepted. That means that Iran has already started to drive a wedge between the United States and its main military ally in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, France said it would withhold its approval on the UN Security Council for any relaxation of sanctions against Iran. The end of those sanctions and UN approval is also part of Iran's demands. France's concern, likely to be echoed by the United Kingdom, which is also a Security Council member, is that Trump is acting as precipitously to escape the war at any cost as he did in unilaterally declaring it. That intervention, while probably a good thing for the United States in the long run, will mean Trump will have even less control over the peace process in the meantime.

Direct negotiations between the United States and Iran, scheduled to begin today in Switzerland, have been canceled.

Trump's response to all of the above was to retreat to the emotional safe space of declaring on social media that it was Iran, not him, who was desperate and defeated.

Why does this matter?

• No amount of tweeting through it is going to change the situation here. 

• Thinking an enemy nation won't fight back with every tool at its disposal is why Trump lost the war in the first place.