What did Donald Trump do today?

He threatened atrocities in the morning and signaled surrender in the afternoon. 

This morning, Trump threatened in a post to his microblogging website to destroy "a whole civilization," presumably meaning Iran's, if they didn't capitulate to his demands by 8 PM EDT, the latest of several deadlines he'd set.

This afternoon, he announced that a ceasefire with Iran had been reached, based on a "ten-point plan" Iran had submitted, and pending the "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz."

Just a few minutes later, Iran launched missiles at Israel. Most of Iran's attacks in the war have been directed at US-aligned countries in the region rather than American targets directly, so if the ceasefire doesn't apply to those countries, it will be of very limited effect on Iran.

Later in the evening, Trump himself posted a message from Iranian officials which explicitly confirmed that Iran would maintain unchallenged military control of the Strait: "For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations." 

Iran has been charging vessels $2 million per transit, but has announced it is willing to split that fee with Oman. Under normal circumstances, about 135 ships go through the Strait of Hormuz per day, which would amount to something like a $40 billion annual income stream for Iran's government. That's more than 10% of its current GDP. 

Iran's demands, which Trump called "a workable basis on which to negotiate," are:

1.  The United States must commit to a non-aggressive stance toward Iran.
2.  Iran will maintain full control over the Strait of Hormuz (which it did not have before Trump's attacks).
3.  Iran will be permitted to enrich uranium.
4.  The United States will lift sanctions on Iran.
5.  The United States will lift sanctions against other countries doing business with Iran.
6.  The United Nations will withdraw its resolutions targeting Iran. 
7.  The International Atomic Energy Agency will lift its restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.
8.  Iran will be fully compensated for the damage it has sustained during the war.
9.  The United States will withdraw combat forces from the region.
10.  All parties will enter into a cease-fire, including in Israel's ongoing invasion of Lebanon.

In other words, after a month of prematurely declaring that he would only accept Iran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER," Trump is celebrating being offered what by any objective standard is a demand for the United States' surrender. 

Of course, Iran is not likely to get all of these concessions at the bargaining table, assuming any actual talks happen. That may be the best possible outcome for both sides: simply ending things with a new status quo, even one that leaves the Iranian regime objectively stronger. 

But it is a sign of Trump's desperation to undo some of the damage the war has caused—or at least to get himself out of the corner he'd painted himself into by threatening atrocities—by calling any excuse to back down a win.
 

Why does this matter?

• Any "strategy" that puts your country at the mercy of a vastly weaker opponent is an incredibly bad strategy. 

• This is both an absolute humiliation for the United States and, for now, the best possible outcome under the circumstances.