What did Donald Trump do today?
He became the first American president to have to ask Iran nicely for permission to let boats through the Strait of Hormuz.
On Tuesday, in an attempt to sell the idea that Iran really was engaged in peace talks, Trump declared that its government had given him an unspecified "present." Today, he revealed what that gift was: permission for eight oil tankers from neutral countries to transit the Strait of Hormuz safely. (It's not clear exactly how many ships are involved: Trump started by saying eight, but then insisted it was really ten.)
Trump, who now gets most of his news from carefully edited two-minute-long videos, genuinely seemed to think this was good news. According to his administration, the "present" came after his administration requested a show of goodwill. The Trump administration has presented this development as evidence that Iran was desperate to sue for peace. (Iran continues to deny that any negotiations are taking place.)
But in practical terms, what Trump was doing was advertising the fact that Iran has complete operational control over a major world shipping artery, something that has never happened before. He is demonstrating exactly what bewildered allies and his own staff has been trying to get him to understand: that he has allowed Iran to maneuver him into a position where he must either find some way to swallow the humiliation of backing down and leaving the Iranian regime stronger, or escalating to the nightmare scenario of trying to invade Iran with ground troops. (Iran is much larger and has a much more capable military than, for example, Afghanistan, which effectively resisted U.S. conquest for over a decade.)
In other words, Trump has become the first American president to have to beg Iran for "presents" like this one—from a country that he described weeks ago as being already "totally obliterated."
Trump had described the "present" as being worth "a tremendous amount of money." Eight or ten tankers' worth of oil is certainly worth a lot, especially with oil prices sky-high thanks to Trump's miscalculation about how easily the Iranian regime would be cowed, but the "tremendous amount of money" involved won't go to the United States.
In fact, given the economic turmoil caused by delays in oil and gas shipments out of the Persian Gulf, Iran might be the only one making any money at all. It has reportedly been successful in charging a $2 million fee to a number of ships in exchange for safe passage out of the Gulf. Meanwhile, price spikes are beginning to hit everything from the helium used in MRI machines and chip manufacturing to the feedstock chemicals used in making plastics.
Why does this matter?
- As humiliating as this is for the United States, it is worse that Trump doesn't seem to understand how bad the situation has become.
- It's one thing to fail to bomb an enemy country into submission, but it's another thing to somehow bomb an enemy country into a stronger position.