What did Donald Trump do today?

He said he was having peace talks with Iran, which said it is not having peace talks with him.

At 7:05 AM this morning, Trump (or someone else able to post as him) announced on his private social media site that he was "PLEASE [sic] TO REPORT" that the United States and Iran had had "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" about the end of hostilities. He then took the opportunity to back away from his self-imposed 6 PM deadline for Iran's surrender, after which he had promised to start bombing Iranian civilian power plants, which would be a war crime.

But this is a lie, according to Iranian government he is supposedly having "IN DEPTH, DETAILED AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS WITH." The speaker of Iran's parliament said that the "Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors, and no negotiations have been held with the U.S." He added, in an obvious jab at Trump, that Trump's claim was simply"fake news" that was being "used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the U.S. and Israel are trapped."

Iran's rejection of Trump's claim extended to social media, where its South African embassy mocked Trump's claim made later in the day that he—personally—would jointly control the Strait of Hormuz with some future replacement Iranian leader.

 

It's worth noting that Iran's government could be lying, or simply downplaying the significance of normal, extremely low-level communication as much as Trump is exaggerating it. There are both military and diplomatic advantages for the Iranian government to keeping the threat of hostilities sharp. For one thing, both Iran and its military ally Russia benefit enormously from inflated oil prices while they last.

But there's also no reason to trust Trump's claims, which he didn't substantiate in any way. He had backed himself into a corner with his threat to commit atrocities and was likely facing stiff resistance from his military advisors. And he is just as motivated to convince the world that the threat is ending prematurely as Iran is to perpetuate a sense of danger. Trump's post came just before the markets opened this Monday morning, and said that talks would continue "THROUGH THE WEEK," in effect buying himself a little time against the continued drop in stock prices and rise in oil prices.

Even if Trump is telling some part of the truth here, it is a humiliating retreat from his previous attempts to ignore the fact that Iran remained capable of fighting back even after Trump's attacks had supposedly "annihilated" it. The most optimistic possible spin on Trump engaging in negotiations—not the "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" he had demanded weeks ago—is that he is beginning to listen to allies telling him the war was becoming a "disaster."

The effect it had on the markets is attracting attention, too, although not from the Trump-controlled Securities and Exchange Commission. There are unmistakable indicators of enormous financial trades—$580 million worth—being placed just minutes before Trump's announcement. This is a clear sign of insider trading by unknown parties who either knew what Trump was about to do, or at least what "Trump" would be saying via social media, and exactly when it would happen. Similar sudden, pre-dawn moves precisely timed to take advantage of Trump's post are being reported in so-called "prediction markets" and cryptocurrency exchanges. 

Source: paulkrugman.substack.com

Insider trading becoming a pattern with Trump's White House, as unknown people made windfall profits on last-second trades before the attacks on Venezuela and the launching of Trump's war on Iran. 

Why does this matter?

• It's incredibly bad if Americans don't know whether to believe their president or the government of an authoritarian enemy nation. 

• Trump's handling of this has simply been the most catastrophically incompetent military and foreign policy blunder in American history.