What did Donald Trump do today?
He told a very different story on Iran than anyone else in his administration.
Trump ordered an attack on three Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities yesterday, after publicly saying that American intelligence agencies were "wrong" in their assessment that Iran was not enriching uranium to the point where it could assemble a weapon. Trump, who rarely reads the daily intelligence briefings prepared for him, did not say why he thought he knew better.
Today, Trump continued the theme of contradicting his own administration. He declared that all three sites had been "completely and totally obliterated" and with them, any capacity to create a nuclear weapon.
That's not true, according to the Defense Department, which noted only that the external, above-ground portions of the key facility was damaged, as opposed to the extensive underground bunkers known to exist at those sites. More importantly, both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Trump's own vice-president admitted that there was no evidence that the actual enriched uranium stockpile—the material that could become the cores of weapons with one final cycle of enrichment—had been impacted by the strikes.
Trump also told a different story than three key officials today about his intentions regarding a larger war. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told CBS' Face the Nation that "this wasn't a regime change move." Vice-President Vance told NBC's Meet the Press that "we don't want a regime change," and repeated it on ABC's This Week: "We don't want to achieve regime change." And Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth insisted at a press conference that "this mission was not and has not been about regime change."
Later that day, Trump teased the possibility of a wider war to accomplish exactly that, in a post on his private microblogging site:
It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!
Trump also communicated to Iran's leadership last night that he did not seek regime change—in which case, it would mean he is more willing to lie to the American people than to hostile foreign governments.
It hasn't been clear for some time to what extent Trump is actually in control of his own foreign policy. The growing consensus, now backed by sources from inside his administration, is that he was manipulated by Israel's embattled Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu to launch an attack that Israel couldn't, in spite of the fact that Trump appeared to genuinely want to avoid any involvement, except to take credit for any diplomatic solution.
Regardless, Trump's attempts to spin what happened yesterday as part of a plan he'd had all along don't seem to be working. First-day polls show that a clear majority of Americans disapprove, with only 35% supporting the bombings. Virtually nobody, other than Trump, appears to want war with Iran, with 85% of respondents opposed and only 5% in favor.
This is a remarkable departure from the usual reactions to military operations, when there is virtually always a "rally 'round the flag" effect and positive poll numbers, in the short term at least.
Why does this matter?
- This kind of thing is way too important for a president to be lying or cracking jokes about.
- If the operation had accomplished its goals then telling the truth would have been enough.
- American national security is more important than any attempt to boost Trump's popularity.
- If Donald Trump truly believes he has information about secret Iranian schemes that nobody else in 18 different intelligence agencies knows about, he's delusional and should be removed from office.