Tuesday, October 1, 2019

What did Donald Trump do today?

He lied about whether Americans want to see him impeached.

Trump tried to chill increasing public support for the impeachment inquiry with a tweet today showing a mostly-red map and the caption "Try To Impeach This."

There are, to put it mildly, a few problems with this.

First of all, the map is wrong, coloring in counties in Trump red that actually voted for Clinton. 

It also obscures the fact that Trump lost the popular vote by a historic margin. Hillary Clinton received more than 2,800,000 more votes than Trump.

The map from 2016 ignores the fact that the more recent 2018 midterms were an absolute disaster for Republicans, as Democrats rode an anti-Trump wave to a gain of 41 seats in the House. Democratic candidates in the House, where every member faces re-election every two years, received 8,600,000 more votes than Republicans. The last time the margin was that lopsided was in 1974, right before President Nixon was forced from office.

More problematically for Trump, Americans' support for impeachment has increased dramatically in the last week, as more and more about his attempts to force foreign governments to take sides in the 2020 election has come out. 

  • A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday showed Americans evenly split, 47-47, for Trump's impeachment and removal from office. Last Wednesday—before most of the week's most damning revelations came out—it had been a 20-point gap, 37-57.
  • Monmouth University poll released today showed Americans supporting an impeachment inquiry by a margin of 6 points, 49-43. This was an increase of six points since August. 
  • A CBS/YouGov poll taken September 26-27 showed a 10-point majority support for the impeachment inquiry, 55-45. The same poll showed Americans favoring impeachment and removal by a 42-36 margin.
  • Tracking polls, which ask the same question on a daily basis, also showed dramatic increases in support for impeachment during the past week. Civiqs saw a six-point swing, to an overall 49-46 support for impeachment, over the course of three days between last Sunday and last Wednesday. Between September 24 and their September 26-30 window, Reuters saw Americans supporting Trump's impeachment go from a 37-45 minority to a 45-41 majority. 
  • Even polls showing a slight majority of Americans opposing impeachment at this point are showing dramatic shifts. A CNBC poll released today has a 44-47 split on the subject of impeachment, up sharply from 41-54 at the start of the Mueller investigation. But it also has Trump's approval rating at 37%, a record low for that poll.

So what?

  • Americans tell the president how they feel about him, not the other way around.
  • Lying about your popularity rarely works after about middle school.